Is the Resolve to Stop Future Migrant Caravans Wavering?

Guatemala successfully subdued the aggressive mob

Share Tweet Forward Is the Resolve to Stop Future Migrant Caravans Wavering? Washington, D.C. (January 19, 2020) - The second Honduran caravan since Joe Biden won the presidential election will not reach Mexico on any significant number despite swelling into an angry, police-assaulting freight train of some 9,000 people. Guatemalan resolve, planning, and tailored crowd-control tactics implemented by more than 5,000 soldiers successfully subdued the aggressive mob. By the end of Monday, at least 1,600 migrants had been deported to Honduras with  deportations continuing into the night.  A bus home was a far more sure thing than reaching the new Joe Biden administration and its promises of unobstructed, permanent lives in the United States, and now possible amnesty. At least 21 who later tested positive for Covid were among them. View the full article at: https://cis.org/Bensman/Final-Word-Latest-Honduras-Migrant-Caravan-Probably The Trump administration had threatened to cut off foreign assistance to these governments unless they worked harder to break up caravans, and they did. But is there growing recriminations of the sort that suggest a gradual erosion of political resolve to halt the next caravan? Honduras, which just last month used force to break up the previous U.S.-bound caravan, on Monday issued calls "to the national and international community" to investigate "the actions carried out by the Guatemalan security forces." With Trump exiting the White House, Honduras obviously felt emboldened to add its official voice to a growing cacophony of human rights advocacy groups angry that Guatemala had used force to stop this caravan. It seems unlikely that Honduras will do anything to break up the next caravan and would return to the old familiarity as an unobstructed transit nation. On behalf of Guatemala, Foreign Minister Pedro Brolo Vila called out Honduras for a failure of will and tactics that put the hot potato in his country. He said that instead of Honduran promises to deploy a large contingent of security forces, the Honduran police who were deployed ended up accompanying the migrants "to our borders, where unfortunately we saw how violently they entered, violating Guatemalan territorial sovereignty." Will a domino effect knock over Guatemalan and Mexican resolve next?    Visit Website

Factors that Will Influence the Fate of Biden’s Amnesty Plan

Share Tweet Forward Factors that Will Influence the Fate of Biden's Amnesty Plan Washington, D.C. (January 20, 2021) – An analysis by the Center for Immigration Studies examines the factors that will impact the fate of the amnesty bill, reported to provide amnesty to 11 million-plus aliens, that the Biden administration will soon send to Congress. Andrew Arthur, resident fellow in law and policy and author of the article, writes, "There are many factors at play in determining how likely the new president will be in pushing through his amnesty plan for some 11 million-plus aliens. Speed will likely be the most critical, but that could be impeded by the work of congressional Republicans, and the principles of Sen. Joe Manchin." The scope and success of the bill will be impacted by the following: There are many factors that will determine the success or failure of that plan — and what the final product will look like — but the speed at which it moves through the legislative process will likely be the key one. Democrats hold a slight majority in the House, and the Senate is evenly split, effectively giving control of that chamber to the Democrats. The majority of Democrats are likely to favor a large amnesty plan with few if any needed enforcement reforms, but many in the House could face significant reelection challenges. Passing that plan through "regular order" — by which the legislation is subject to committee hearings and mark-ups — will likely slow the passage of that bill, but is more likely to result in legislation that has popular support and contains key reforms and compromises. House Democrats who are in vulnerable seats in the next election would probably strongly favor that result. Bills can be passed through the House through regular order on simple majorities, but the filibuster rule in the Senate means that stand-alone amnesty legislation will require 60 votes, and therefore would be dependent on Republican support. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) has stated unequivocally that he opposes doing away with the filibuster. Whether he sticks to his principles on the issue will determine whether the amnesty bill will need to meet that 60-vote margin. The Senate can pass that bill, however, through the budget "reconciliation" process, but that will require linking the amnesty to government revenues and spending. Sen. Manchin, a Democrat who represents a largely Republican state, may oppose that maneuver. A further economic downturn could imperil the prospects for that bill. The unemployment rate in December was 6.7 percent, and more than 56 million working-age Americans were not in the labor force. Tens of thousands of businesses have closed permanently as a result of the pandemic. Popular support for legalizing millions of aliens unlawfully present and allowing them to compete with those currently in the legal workforce may not be that strong, and would likely fall if the economy does not reverse itself, or if it gets worse.   Visit Website

ICE Detention and Removal Numbers Slip in the Wake of Pandemic

Some good news, but still a lot of bad. 

Share Tweet Forward ICE Detention and Removal Numbers Slip in the Wake of Pandemic Some good news, though, but still a lot of bad. Will it get better   Washington, D.C. (December 30, 2020) - ICE Enforcement Removal Operations (ERO) statistics for FY 2020 have been released.  Not surprisingly-- given the pandemic and its associated restrictions-- total removals and the number of aliens removed from the interior of the United States, as well as the number of aliens in ICE detention, are all down compared to FY 2019.  There were increases in removals, however, in some surprising subgroups.  The big question, though, is whether there will be a rebound in immigration enforcement once the pandemic emergency is over.  Andrew Arthur, the Center's Resident Fellow in Law and Policy, said, "The numbers are particularly dismal given the fact that there are, by conservative estimates, more than 10 million aliens illegally present in the United States, of whom more than 3.2 million are on ICE's non-detained docket. The big reason for the decline is the pandemic, but the crisis may soon be over with vaccines in production. The question is will enforcement efforts rebound with the next administration, especially if a surge occurs at the border and illegal numbers in the interior rise." The full CIS article: https://cis.org/Arthur/ICE-Detention-and-Removal-Numbers-Slip-Wake-Pandemic Highlights of the report: A 30.5 percent decrease in removals over FY 2019, only 8 percent were non-criminal. Removals decline for second year in a row. FY 2020 non-detained docket lower than FY 2019. ICE ERO arrests were down 38 percent, only 10 percent were non-criminal.    Pandemic had a large impact on arrests and removals. Detainers issued decreased 26 percent largely due to fewer state and local arrests. ICE issued detainers for aliens with convictions or pending charges for 1,900 homicide-related offenses, the same number of kidnappings, 3,600 robberies, 42,800 assaults, and 11,900 sex crimes.        Several "previously non-cooperative" countries (Bangladesh, Cuba, Haiti, India) took back more of their nationals. Family unit removals increased 154 percent, but the population increased. The Electronic Nationality Verification (ENV) Program, rolled out in July 2019,  ENV, in which El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras participate, was a success, allowing aliens to  spend less time in detention awaiting removal. One third of all aliens on alternatives to detention (ATD) absconded. The agency contends that given ERO's limited resources, its ability to keep tabs on aliens on ATD is "extremely limited".  This simply reinforces the Center's conclusion in January 2019 that "Alternative Programs Don't Eliminate the Need for Immigration Detention".  ICE detention numbers declined 33 percent. Visit Website Donate Copyright © 2020 Center for Immigration Studies, All rights reserved.  Our mailing address is: Center for Immigration Studies 1629 K St., NW, Suite 600 Washington, DC 20006 USA