New from the Center for Immigration Studies, 2/1/21

Share Tweet Forward What's Happening at the Center In his latest commentary, in the international affairs journal The National Interest, Mark Krikorian explains that the Biden administration's legislative proposal to legalize virtually all illegal aliens and enact a variety of measures to weaken immigration enforcement and increase legal immigration beyond the current level of about one million a year may never be introduced in Congress and has no chance of passage. Targeted legislative measures are more likely if they include meaningful reform, such as the mandatory use of E-Verify and a prohibition on state and local sanctuary policies. In the absence of these tradeoffs, expect more executive actions to increase admissions and weaken enforcement. Featured Blogs Biden Administration Should Enact a National Population Policy: The fifth of several occasional postings from a life-long Democrat By David North While the previous articles in this series have dealt with highly specific suggestions regarding parts of our immigration system, today we get into a more fundamental discussion: The nation needs an overall population policy, something we have never had. Trump's DHS Inked Immigration Enforcement Agreements with States: Could hamstring Biden's removal moratorium; learning from Flores By Andrew R. Arthur The Trump administration plainly learned from the lawsuits against its own policy changes, as these agreements could stop President Biden's 100-day enforcement moratorium in much the same way that the Flores litigation has hamstrung immigration detention. Migrants in Mexico Are Getting Impatient: Frustrated that Biden hasn't opened the border fast enough, Cubans and others talk of simply rushing over By Todd Bensman Real change in how Border Patrol and the Mexicans do their jobs is likely coming in the weeks and months ahead, but frustration about how words in Washington translate into actual deeds is boiling in Juarez. Federal Judge Blocks Biden's 100-Day 'Pause' on Removals: When 'shall' means 'shall'; individual positions on nationwide injunctive relief will likely switch By Andrew R. Arthur Judge Drew B. Tipton of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Texas issued a temporary restraining order yesterday blocking implementation of a 100-day "pause" on the removal of most aliens subject to final orders of removal, announced by DHS on January 20. Those who were or, conversely were not, fans of injunctive relief in the last administration will likely find their opinions have changed.   More Blog Posts The Day the Sounds of Construction Died: Video from a site on the New Mexico border where the halt to wall construction has left a mile wide gap The Canard of 'Hyper' ICE Enforcement Under Trump: Absent 'sensible' enforcement reforms, 'amnesty just tees up tomorrow's even bigger amnesty' Biden Administration Kills Two Trump Foreign Worker Reforms Trump Immigration Regulations Biden Should Finalize: Part 1: Employment Authorization for Certain Classes of Aliens with Final Orders of Removal Immigration Newspeak: Who's afraid of alien(s)? The Biden Administration's Assault on the English Language Changing 'Alien' to 'Noncitizen': 'Bikeshedding' as legislative maneuver? The Dangerous Gambit of the Enforcement Moratorium and Amnesty Legislation: No one wants to negotiate with a gun to their head Is Biden Reconsidering Mass Amnesty Legislation?: The Kremlinology of the missing fact sheet and the clue in the Wall Street Journal At a notorious opening in the border wall just west of El Paso, locally known as the "Anapra Gap", Todd Bensman spoke to a Mexican immigration officer guarding a 20-foot segment in a pickup truck, along with members of the Mexican national guard.

Is the Resolve to Stop Future Migrant Caravans Wavering?

Guatemala successfully subdued the aggressive mob

Share Tweet Forward Is the Resolve to Stop Future Migrant Caravans Wavering? Washington, D.C. (January 19, 2020) - The second Honduran caravan since Joe Biden won the presidential election will not reach Mexico on any significant number despite swelling into an angry, police-assaulting freight train of some 9,000 people. Guatemalan resolve, planning, and tailored crowd-control tactics implemented by more than 5,000 soldiers successfully subdued the aggressive mob. By the end of Monday, at least 1,600 migrants had been deported to Honduras with  deportations continuing into the night.  A bus home was a far more sure thing than reaching the new Joe Biden administration and its promises of unobstructed, permanent lives in the United States, and now possible amnesty. At least 21 who later tested positive for Covid were among them. View the full article at: https://cis.org/Bensman/Final-Word-Latest-Honduras-Migrant-Caravan-Probably The Trump administration had threatened to cut off foreign assistance to these governments unless they worked harder to break up caravans, and they did. But is there growing recriminations of the sort that suggest a gradual erosion of political resolve to halt the next caravan? Honduras, which just last month used force to break up the previous U.S.-bound caravan, on Monday issued calls "to the national and international community" to investigate "the actions carried out by the Guatemalan security forces." With Trump exiting the White House, Honduras obviously felt emboldened to add its official voice to a growing cacophony of human rights advocacy groups angry that Guatemala had used force to stop this caravan. It seems unlikely that Honduras will do anything to break up the next caravan and would return to the old familiarity as an unobstructed transit nation. On behalf of Guatemala, Foreign Minister Pedro Brolo Vila called out Honduras for a failure of will and tactics that put the hot potato in his country. He said that instead of Honduran promises to deploy a large contingent of security forces, the Honduran police who were deployed ended up accompanying the migrants "to our borders, where unfortunately we saw how violently they entered, violating Guatemalan territorial sovereignty." Will a domino effect knock over Guatemalan and Mexican resolve next?    Visit Website

Factors that Will Influence the Fate of Biden’s Amnesty Plan

Share Tweet Forward Factors that Will Influence the Fate of Biden's Amnesty Plan Washington, D.C. (January 20, 2021) – An analysis by the Center for Immigration Studies examines the factors that will impact the fate of the amnesty bill, reported to provide amnesty to 11 million-plus aliens, that the Biden administration will soon send to Congress. Andrew Arthur, resident fellow in law and policy and author of the article, writes, "There are many factors at play in determining how likely the new president will be in pushing through his amnesty plan for some 11 million-plus aliens. Speed will likely be the most critical, but that could be impeded by the work of congressional Republicans, and the principles of Sen. Joe Manchin." The scope and success of the bill will be impacted by the following: There are many factors that will determine the success or failure of that plan — and what the final product will look like — but the speed at which it moves through the legislative process will likely be the key one. Democrats hold a slight majority in the House, and the Senate is evenly split, effectively giving control of that chamber to the Democrats. The majority of Democrats are likely to favor a large amnesty plan with few if any needed enforcement reforms, but many in the House could face significant reelection challenges. Passing that plan through "regular order" — by which the legislation is subject to committee hearings and mark-ups — will likely slow the passage of that bill, but is more likely to result in legislation that has popular support and contains key reforms and compromises. House Democrats who are in vulnerable seats in the next election would probably strongly favor that result. Bills can be passed through the House through regular order on simple majorities, but the filibuster rule in the Senate means that stand-alone amnesty legislation will require 60 votes, and therefore would be dependent on Republican support. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) has stated unequivocally that he opposes doing away with the filibuster. Whether he sticks to his principles on the issue will determine whether the amnesty bill will need to meet that 60-vote margin. The Senate can pass that bill, however, through the budget "reconciliation" process, but that will require linking the amnesty to government revenues and spending. Sen. Manchin, a Democrat who represents a largely Republican state, may oppose that maneuver. A further economic downturn could imperil the prospects for that bill. The unemployment rate in December was 6.7 percent, and more than 56 million working-age Americans were not in the labor force. Tens of thousands of businesses have closed permanently as a result of the pandemic. Popular support for legalizing millions of aliens unlawfully present and allowing them to compete with those currently in the legal workforce may not be that strong, and would likely fall if the economy does not reverse itself, or if it gets worse.   Visit Website